Ken asks…
My NFL Rankings for 2009 What are yours?
Here's my rankings
AFC
East
Pats 13-3
Phins 11-5
Jets 7-9
Bills 5-11
West
Chargers 10-6
Broncos 10-6
Chiefs 7-9
Raiders 4-12
South
Titans 11-5
Colts 10-6
Texans 9-7
Jags 7-9
North
Steelers 13-3
Ravens 12-4
Bengals 6-10
Browns 5-11
NFC
North
Vikings 13-3
Bears 9-7
Pack 5-11
Lions 4-12
East
Boys 13-3
Giants 12-4
Eagles 11-5
Skins 7-9
South
Falcons 12-4
Panthers 10-6
Saints 9-7
Bucs 3-13
West
Cards 11-5
Seahawks 6-10
49ers 4-12
Rams 2-14
AFC Wild Card
Titans vs. Ravens- Ravens win
Phins vs. Chargers- Phins win
NFC Wild Card
Eagles vs. Cards- Eagles win
Giants vs. Falcons- Falcons win
AFC Divisional
Ravens vs. Pats - Pats win
Phins vs. Steelers - Steelers win
NFC Divisional
Eagles vs Vikes- Vikes win
Boys vs Falcons- Falcons win
AFC Conference Championship
Pats vs. Steelers- Pats win
NFC Conference Championship
Vikes vs. Falcons - Vikes win
Super Bowl
Vikes vs Pats - Vikes win
The Falcons would have had the easist road because they faces the Giants and Boys who choke so I put them 1 and done until they can prove to me they wont choke.
The Vikes won because the Pats did amazing in the whole season a couple of years ago (16-0 in regular season) until they did the same thing as the Boys and Giants they choked in the Super Bowl so they still have to prove to me they dont choke.
The toughest choice in the playoffs was Eagles vs. Cards, Cards could have won their division with a 7-9 record last year so their a shoe in but could they beat the Eagles again, nope i'll tell you why, 19th ranked defense vs 9th ranked offense = Offensive win but 3rd ranked defense for Eagles and 4th Ranked O for the Cards would be a good matchup so if their D showed up that game this could be a win for the Cards after all they already have "Shocked the world" once rite
2 big suprises might be Chargers with and Colts without a playoff spot, Colts just lost Tony Dungy and we all know the AFC is tough to get a playoff spot in and the Chargers have the best QB in NFL last year in TDs but the Broncos are pretty good to but LT needs to keep up better and until he can prove he does better it is a close race between Broncs and Boltz and the Broncs will be on the losing end of that for a while though with their trade for the Never Been Kyle Orton
To Mike M: the Boys have the 8th ranked D and 13th ranked O they are not goin 2 go 13-3 maybe but they will still be good and Broncos suprised us all and almost kicked the chargers out of the playoffs so dont down on this team
To Messykatttt: I am biased I hate the Fanny Pack for letting go for Brett and I think the Vikes will beat every NFC North team 2 times and that six wins right there so I am biased there
To: Thomas the Bucs are gonna suck and the East is the toughest division in NFC possibly and thats why Panthers didnt make it
To: Mug The Bills are 7-9 what else do you want from me a winning record
Chiefs have Matt Cassel who will change that team
Vikes are awesome
5-11 for Cowboys...no maybe not 13-3 but wprst I can see them is 8-8
Bucs are rebuilding wothout a stable QB situation
Cards win and thats all that matters in NFC West they all suck except thm
To: Vag ino Saints will do better but they got a tough division and btw what are u on the Pats will make the playoffs
To everyone: the Panthers have a tough schedule
Eagles L
Falcons L
Boys L
Skins W
Bucs W
Bills W
Cards W
Saints W
Falcons L
Phins W
Jets W
Bucs W
Pats L
Vikes W
Giants L
Saints W
thats 10-6
admin answers:
Pats win super bowl from falcons
Carol asks…
How would I get my NFL power rankings noticed by someone without losing the integrity of the rankings?
I do not want to explain how my power rankings are devised because then anyone can turn me down but take the formula and use it anyway.
These are actual power rankings and are NOT biased towards any team, even my favorite team. One factor is the team record but is only one factor.
Power rankings determine power, therefore, a team may have a worse record than even a few teams underneath them.
I have devised these and worked with them on and off for 15 years and have found out that the top 6 ranked teams in each conference in my rankings are usually the playoff teams.
Is there any way to get with someone and get noticed? Maybe I can get some exposure and maybe compensation for this.
Anybody with knowledge on this, feel free to email me as well...
Um if for some reason NFC South champion New Orleans finishes with a better record than, say, the wild card Giants, but the Giants are ranked higher than NO, then that is how it would end up that the Giants have a worse record than NO, are ranked higher and still both teams are going to the playoffs...
PLUS I want to get in touch with someone about htis, not just basically anonymously posting my top 5 or 10 in YA when it is supposed to be questions...
how would I go about patenting or registering it?
I could do comments cause I see how they do that on espn.com, but their power rankings are almost all based on their OWN OPINION(S) and nothing else... mine actually has a method that works well... I just don't have the time to do it without getting some type of compensation for it...
Power rankings are just that... based on the current power of the team... anyone can give their (un)biased opinion and use whatever intangibles they want to use, but if you are trying to predict outcomes, power rankings don't do that... I have a points system to use for this, not just "Hmmm I think the Steelers are better than the Browns(or Colts or Bears) and that's why they are ranked where they are." Have you seen any power rankings with actual numbers??
Again, you have to prove that you are someone who can help me with my power rankings before I just freely give out how the power rankings are devised.
Power rankings rank teams not individual players like Favre.
Again, they rank teams not predict the future. If I had a true system that could easily predict the future, do you think I would be wasting my time on YA?
Hmmm nice rankings out of your head not bad at all but I do it overall...
for the other guy below that one... wouldn't work in college... too many teams and actually common opponents is something that ties in... the NFL postseason is not necessarily based on record either... if the Bucs are a WC team, they could have a 10-6 record, YET be seeded underneath whoever wins the NFC West with a possible 8-8 record... same way with the weak AFC West... guaranteed that the AFC West winner will NOT have the 4th best record in the AFC... so tell me again, that records matter in the NFL postseason... maybe in homefield advantage, but not in overall seeding and a guaranteed playoff spot... could be even similar to I believe the 93 baseball playoffs where the 103 win Giants did not make the playoffs because the Braves had one more win and the NL East division winner had less than 103 wins... I know this isn't baseball and that was when there was no WC team, but it could still happen in this day..
Also adding in Favre and other players will just open up a can of worms... where would you stop??
anyone can make up whatever intangible(s) they want to...
again, I have yet to see any "formula" for power rankings past someone's own opinions... this is not based on opinions...
Also, no rankings out there have ANY predictive value whatsoever... or else that guy would be the richest guy in the world... and he definitely wouldn't be publishing them for everybody else to see...
I guess the point I would make to the latest comment is which person would you listen to, one that has studied game films all week long or someone that doesn't do anything but read the regular football news and watches a few games on sunday(and monday)? How do you even know which guy is which? So there is your point, since no one knows me, then what makes anyone better than me? If I picked the winners based on my formula and Terry Bradshaw picked the winners based on his knowledge and I came out better than him week in and week out but you did not know whose list was who's, then predictably, you would automatically say that Bradshaw is obviously the one with the better record even though it wasn't....
I guess you just have to have a name already in order for someone to pay attention to you...
What if I was a popular NFL columnist just posting questions on here?
How do you know I am not?
admin answers:
Lets be real here for a few seconds.
There are hundereds and hundereds of analysts out there who have plenty of thier own systems for evaluation. What makes yours better than thiers?
Your system creates a power ranking based on results and statistics, which everyone has access to. The real analysts get paid because they can evaluate intangebles. Id like to know whether or not your formula includes home vs away record? Grass vs turf record? Does it evaluate the effects of injuries, (if so Id really be interested)?
*Brett Favre one of the all time greats, has a tough time winning in domes. That would most definitely effect my thoughts if they happened to play in a lot of domes.
- The point I'm trying to make is that your formula is not a model for the future. Its a model for past performance. Im willing to bet that I could just as accurately pick pick the playoff teams in week 14 as your formula using week 14 statistics.
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What is the point of making the power ranking for the NFL then? The only ranking that matters is the RECORD. Wins V Losses. That is the best (and the only one that counts) indicator of the past. Without some positive predictive value all you have have is a pretty list teams with a few numbers next to them.
It sounds to me like your formula would be more useful at the college level where teams often will not play common opponents, and the post season is not necessarily based on record.
As far as you response to my Favre comment, how can you discount the play of a quarterback in regards to the "power" of his team?
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Your formula, while I will admit is less bias than and less arbitrary than sheer opinion is still relatively arbitrary.
You decided which catagories or statistics to include. You decided how to weight or not weight them, and You decided how to mathematically manipulate them.
Aside from the math lets get to the marketability of it. Or why there is no widely accepted power ranking with numbers. Its because people dont care about a number. They will want to know why and how it is what it is. As far as I understand your situation is pretty comprehensive and complex and I doubt you could explain it to anyone but a pundit.
Which is the point of a pundit, to relay relevant information to viewers or readers. More often than not they can explain to somebody why Dallas is better than Seattle without involving some complex formula.
Your case about the AFC West is not remarkable. Thats the reality, and it happens every year. The Padres didnt make the playoffs but the Cubs did. Thus far this year the two teams most deserving of being in the Superbowl are AFC teams.
I doubt it will serve as a condolance to whatever wild card team is better than the AFC West that you have it straight in your power rankings. All that matters is the game coming up and Im not convinced your way of doing it is any better than someone who spends all week studying film and forms an opinon.
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I wasnt insinuating that you couldnt come up with the same answers TB or any other pundit could. I was suggesting that most of the talking heads can articulate into words that the normal people can understand. Complex mathimatical formulas are exactly that, complex. Despite the fact that your formula includes any meaningful statistic they could talk about, it wont be laid out in a clear cut mannor that the average person could use or understand.
So in essence, its not the faults of your formula but the characteristics of the general populous that would hold it back.
I think that would best be solved by creating susequent formulas to show bits and pieces of a team. Like a offensive or defensive formula. Rush and pass formula to acompany why you have given the overall rating.
Helen asks…
What are your NFC/AFC Power Rankings heading into week 1 of the NFL Season?
1-5 in each conference.
admin answers:
AFC- Patriots,Chargers,Steelers,Jets,Ravens
NFC- Packers,Saints,Bucs,Bears,Giants
EDIT- The LIONS??? LOL
Linda asks…
Wouldn't this get rid of most of the controversy in college football?
Take the final BCS rankings. On New Year's Day, #1 plays #4 and #2 plays #3. Then, the winners of those two games play each other in the National Championship Game on the Sunday between the NFL's conference championships and the Super Bowl. Why wouldn't anyone want that system?
Yeah, it wouldn't get rid of ALL of the controversy but I think it would alleviate most of it... I've heard people talk about 8 or even 16-team playoffs, and I think that's too much. With four teams, you still preserve the importance of the regular season. Teams would still feel pressure to win every game if they wanted a shot.
admin answers:
I totally agree with you. It would be a great way to have a playoff system but still use the bowls. These games could be existing bowl games! I'm still not sure if it would get rid of the controversy in college football. It would still be there for the number 4 spot ( the last spot to make the playoff) and who deserves the opportunity. I think college football and controversy will always go together.
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